(Not actually NSFW but you already got this far so you probably don't care)
162 game major league seasons are such a rollercoaster and nothing depicts the ride better than the season long divisional playoff projections from our friends at Fangraphs. They track each teams probability to make the playoffs every single day and as we know, those odds change with each pitch during the MLB season. And boy are they fun to look at.
The Cubs opened the season with an 11% chance to make the playoffs; just above the Pirates (6.5%) and well below the odds-on favorite Cardinals (67%). After a nice April and some series wins along the way, we watched this team lose 3 of 4 to the Nationals in early May followed by 8 losses over 10 games from 5/7 - 5/17. And on June 8th, after a series sweep by the Angels (what a joke organization), the Cubs neared rock bottom at 7%. Here are a few snapshots of what my brain was going through during this time...
It felt like 2023 was going to pack in early. The first half ended in depressing fashion dropping to a 9% chance of making the playoffs and the team had fans thinking that this was another year selling off the talent we had. Players and hope out the door. My 2nd half preview was optimistic and they were still in reach with some additions...but they came out flat against the Red Sox hitting rock bottom on July 20th at 6%.
But that's why you sign up for 162.. The tragedy of being a baseball fan is what its all about. That's why you bring your boys on a bachelor party to The Federal Landmark on July 22nd (season changer??). That's why you ride the rollercoaster even if you're puking off the side onto the patrons standing in line below. Yeah it might be more fun to eat some Cotton Candy and a funnel cake and just play pop-a-shot for a chance at a shitty framed poster of Sammy Sosa from 2003. But I'm taking the puke filled, stomach dropping, anxiety inducing roller coaster ride every day.
This team has rattled off a record of 34-16 since July 14th and the talent has been on display. Seiya Suzuki is finding his stride, Justin Steele is a Cy Young candidate, the middle of the infield is the best in baseball, Jordan Wicks is doing things that haven't been done since 1901, and oh yeah...Cody Bellinger is playing like its 2019. This team has gone from 'they might make the playoffs' to 'they might make a playoff run'. They now sit 1.5 games back in the division, 3.5 games up in the wild card, and have a 91% chance at a playoff berth.
29-13 since my bachelor party...
The 2023 Cubs are certain to have more ups and downs, but its a great ride. Take it in, get down to Wrigley, and support this team - they deserve it. And don't forget to keep an eye on those FanGraphs excel charts.
Bonus coverage of the other divisions...because it's fun to look at the pain that other fans and teams have had to endure.
NL EAST
The poor poor New York Mets. Started the season with a 77% chance to make the playoffs. Also the Nationals starting and ending with 0% gave me a good chuckle.
NL West
San Diego with an epic implosion. With the 3rd highest payroll and some massive additions, they just couldn't get it done. Also, Kris Bryant playing in Colorado and always being hurt is so sad.
AL Central
What a dogshit division.
AL EAST
This might be my favorite graph of all. What a story the 2023 Orioles have been. Starting with a single digit percent chance with a rollercoaster that pretty much went straight up from the start of the season. Now 100% in the playoffs with young talent across the organization. Also, any chart that shows the demise of the Yankees (2nd largest payroll) and their dumb fans is great. Feel bad for Rizzo but don't feel bad for Yankee roll call guy and all his buddies.
AL WEST
Oakland needs Jonah Hill's help. Or maybe a Chris Pratt pinch hit homerun will spark the organization. Also, the Angels are a dumpster fire and I hope to god Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani find their way out of there.
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